The fire season severity forecasts are modeled from the empirical relationship between sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Atlantic and Pacific and fire incidences across South America (Chen et al. 2011). These forecasts indicate the expected intensity of fire activity due to climatic conditions during the upcoming 2013 dry season. Fire Season Severity Alerts for the upcoming dry season (typically July-October) are provided by NASA and updated monthly from November through June. Knowing the potential fire season severity in advance of the dry season is extremely useful for fire management and prevention, protected areas management, and sustainable land use planning. For more information about these forecasts please see NASA’s web pages
The radial dial above shows the 2013 Fire Season Severity forecast for Santa Cruz, Bolivia. The model forecasts are considerably higher than the conditions in 2011 and 2012.