Fire Season Severity
Fire season severity predictions for 2018. Predictions for 2019 will be posted as soon as the data is available.
The Fire Season Severity (FSS) forecasts are modeled from the empirical relationship between of SST’s in the Atlantic and Pacific and fire incidences across South America (Chen et al. 2011). The values for FSS (indicated at the bottom of the radial dials) are the projected percentile distribution of fire activity in the upcoming year compared to the historical average. A 50th percentile FSS is average, 90th percentile is an extremely high fire activity year, and 10th percentile is an extremely low fire season severity year. More information on the forecasting methods, associated scientific publications, and alerts for different regions are available at http://www.ess.uci.edu/~amazonfirerisk/ForecastWeb/SAMFSS2016.html.